According to Predictit, an event contract trading firm, Herschel Walker has an 18% chance of winning the US Senate run-off election scheduled for 6 December 2022. Real Clear Politics, a political news service, has the former Heisman Trophy winner polling at 47% to Reverend Raphael Warnock’s 51%. With just one week to go, it would appear that Reverend Warnock’s latest ads targeting Mr Walker’s character and preparedness on issues, is taking its toll.
I would like to think that Libertarians were getting some return on our mischief during the 8 November 2022 midterms. The 2.6 percentage points that were kept away from Messrs. Warnock and Walker would have been enough to spare Georgia a run-off election. Most supporters of the two major parties would agree that those 2.6 percentage points scurried away from Mr Warnock were a futile attempt at breaking up a duopoly on voting and that Libertarians and other third-party proponents should get a life and join the “better of two evils” camp.
Such a view demonstrates that the “get along to get along” gang have no appreciation for the bargaining aspect of politics. At the core of the political industry is leverage, quid pro quo. I will give you something in return for something I want; thus, neither of us fall into the lake while logrolling.
I believe that over the last three weeks, both candidates were presented with draft legislation or policy positions that lobbyists wanted passed. The candidate that bit by promising to convert those working drafts into legislation would be the one that the strategic communications firms and lobbyists would find votes for.
I doubt that my Libertarian posse is coming out for Walker. His conservative views on abortion and lack of discussion on tax reduction rules him out. Warnock may score some points with socially left leaning Libertarians but not that many. I believe that in the end, it will be white female voters who will hold their noses and vote for Warnock.
The takeaway here is this. I would counsel a well-defined, organized group of voters to hold out during a state-wide election and bargain for tangibles.
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